Passenger demand for flights between Canada and the United States has plummeted by an astonishing 70%+, according to a leading aviation data science company, with Canadians in their droves seemingly boycotting their southern neighbor.
The data, compiled by OAG Aviation Worldwide, reveals that future flight bookings between Canada and the US have “collapsed” for booking over the next few months, significantly down on last year.
For the month of April, there were more than 1.2 million tickets sold on transborder flights in March 2024, but this year, bookings have plummeted to less than 300,000 – a drop of more than 75%.
For the month of May, the situation isn’t much better, falling from nearly 818,000 tickets sold in March 2024, compared to less than 227,000 tickets sold in March 2025.
The dire situation of passenger demand on the Canada to United States market continues throughout the summer season, falling by 71.6% for June, 71.4% in July, 71.9% in August, and 71.8% in September.
“This sharp drop suggests that travelers are holding off on making reservations, likely due to ongoing uncertainty surrounding the broader trade dispute,” OAG muses in a post on LinkedIn detailing the striking findings.
“For all scheduled airlines operating between the United States and Canada any fall in consumer confidence and subsequent changes to planned travel are a concern, especially in such a large market and when taking place at such short notice.”
What will be interesting to see is whether the so-called “snowbird” travelers who escape Canada’s cold winter for the warm climes of destinations like Florida will also change their booking habits, choosing alternative winter sun locations outside of the United States.
Airlines are already scrambling to adjust their schedules, moving planes from transborder flights and adding capacity to further afield destinations, including in Europe.
According to OAG, capacity on flights between Canada and the United States has already been slashed by more than 320,000 between now and the end of October, and that figure is likely to rise considerably, as the cuts currently represent just 3.5% of available capacity.
OAG warns that Canadian carriers may struggle to quickly repurpose capacity on other routes, especially capacity-constrained airports in Europe, which are slot-restricted.
Time to search Priceline for bargain flights to our 51st state? Still seeing Canadian license plates here in Palm Beach County so I guess the hoosers are holding their noses and now driving down?