Travel demand reached a record high in December 2024, according to new data released by the Department of Transportation, with systemwide enplanements across the United States hitting 83.3 million – a new all-time, seasonally-adjusted, high.
The data compiled by the Bureau of Transportation Statistics shows that between travel demand was up 5.1% on pre-pandemic levels in 2019, while demand grew between November 2024 and December 2024 by 0.2%.
At a domestic level, December 2024 was also a record-setting month, with a new all-time number of domestic enplanements coming in at 72.1 million, while international enplanements stood at 11.24 million.
With these kinds of figures, is it any wonder that airline executives like Delta’s Ed Bastian and United’s Scott Kirby had been so bullish about the future of their respective companies?
That is, however, until the Trump administration happened.
Fears of an all-out trade war with some of the biggest trade partners with the US, including Canada, Mexico, and the European Union, along with China, is already riling consumer confidence, and that’s being reflected in dropping ticket sales.
Delta Air Lines was the first of the so-called Big Three US airlines to sound the alarm, pushing out an investor update last week that warned of a “recent reduction in consumer and corporate confidence caused by increased macro uncertainty.”
The Atlanta-based carrier said this drop in consumer and corporate confidence was “driving softness” in domestic demand… In other words, private consumers and businesses are delaying big-ticket purchases while they wait to see how an anticipated economic shock could play out.
Delta believes that the drop in confidence could more than halve its anticipated Q1 revenue. Unsurprisingly, Delta’s stock plummeted on the news.
On the same day, American Airlines also revised down its guidance for Q1, blaming “softness in the domestic leisure segment,” which is being reflected in ticket sales for March.
American Airlines also said the loss of Flight 5342 over the Potomac River at the end of January had knocked ticket sales, while Delta said a crash of a regional jet in Toronto the following month had hit demand.
Southwest has, however, adjusted its Q1 guidance due to “softness in bookings and demand trends as the macro environment has weakened.” The airline did not have any major airliner incidents to deal with, but Southwest blamed the California wildfires for having a greater anticipated impact on its business.
For the time being, at least, the drop in consumer confidence only seems to be affecting domestic travel demand, and Delta chief executive Ed Bastian remains hopeful that ticket sales will bounce back as the Trump administration’s economic policy starts to become a little clearer.
The effects of Trump’s government cutbacks are, though, already having an impact at United Airlines, where government-related bookings have plummeted by around 50% since the President was sworn into office.
This slowdown in government travel was having a knock-on effect on leisure demand, the Chicago-based carrier cautioned.
Can confirm—I’ve been upgraded on TWO American flights after never ever getting an upgrade in the last two years
That little red light blinking in the corner of your eye is your TDS warning manifesting itself.